Species Distributions and Forecasts in the Marine Ecosystem
Where fish are and when they move depends on ideal habitat for feeding and spawning, but many marine species distributions are shifting and expanding along the US east coast as water temperatures warm. As human-induced climate change alters the marine ecosystem and impacts fishing communities, our historical understanding of where species are, and when, is not indicative of the future. Sustainable fisheries management demands a more rapid and dynamic response.
Forage fishes are an important link in the ecosystem because they are consumers of plankton and are prey to managed and protected species of fishes, marine mammals, and birds. But we often lack information on the populations of most forage species. Therefore, my dissertation work addresses 3 questions:
Where are the forage fish along the US east coast currently and how has their distribution changed?
Where will they be in future?
How can species distribution forecasts be incorporated into the current management process to adapt to anticipated distribution changes?
Spatio-temporal Distribution of Atlantic Menhaden
I am focusing on Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, because it is a prey species to multiple managed and protected species (e.g., striped bass, humpback whales), it is the largest managed fishery, by biomass, on the US east coast, and management includes ecological reference points regarding menhaden’s interactions with predators and the status of other prey species. The results will define local spatio-temporal distributional changes for menhaden, predict distribution scenarios, assess the risks and consequences of distributional changes, and provide options for effectively presenting this information and informing management decisions. I will consider how the accuracy and risks of the results for menhaden are applicable to other forage fishes and their predators and propose options for a more dynamic fisheries management response.